Consider a combination of a base policy and a super top-up policy.
From the Sensex pack, ITC, Titan, Asian Paints, Reliance, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and ICICI Bank were the major gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, HCL Technologies, State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
Starting August, various festivals are celebrated in different parts of the country leading to higher sales of commodities ranging from sweets, fruits and food items
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
The RBI must first deal with the adverse turn of events in the CPI.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
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The food inflation in July softened to 11.24 per cent from 11.84 per cent in the previous month, according to the official data released on Monday.
Power Grid, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti and Nestle were among the laggards. Shares of HCL Technologies were trading over 1 per cent lower even after the company reported a 7.6 per cent year-on-year rise in June quarter net profit on the back of new order wins.
RBI targets to keep inflation at 4 per cent, (+/- 2 per cent), and its rise beyond this comfort zone will put pressure on the central bank to hike rates.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Saturday said that retail inflation is expected to remain close to 5 per cent
However, rural demand continued to remain a concern for FMCG companies during the quarter.
The RBI, which has been keeping rates at an elevated level citing the high inflation, wants to bring it down to 6 per cent by January 2016.
'If you see the composition of items which are causing this spike in prices, most of them have little to do with the kharif harvest, except for pulses and vegetables to some extent.' 'I don't know on what basis the government is claiming that food prices will moderate in the weeks to come.'
Business cycle funds aim to optimise returns by aligning their portfolios with different phases of the economic cycle. First-time investors, those who prefer stable sector allocations, and those averse to volatility should steer clear of them.
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As on Monday, the prices of many vegetables had fallen as much as 50% compared with those a month before, due to increased supply, following the arrival of winter crops in the markets.
"The main risk stems from the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the south west monsoon in view of the rising probability of an El Nio event around July-August, and its implications for food inflation," RBI said, as it kept the status quo on key interest rate for the third time in a row.
India and the US on Friday expressed concern over high inflation which is being driven by external factors and has become a challenge for both the nations. Speaking at the US-India Businesses and Investment Opportunities, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in India the inflation challenges are prompted more by external factors. "So while the number today is in a manageable range, the challenges are largely due to the import of crude.
India's industrial production contracted by 3.6 per cent in February, official data showed on Monday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), manufacturing sector output declined by 3.7 per cent in February 2021. Retail inflation rose to 5.52 per cent in March, mainly on account of higher food prices, government data showed on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation stood at 5.03 per cent in February.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record levels on Thursday after lower inflation numbers raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the RBI. Besides, heavy buying in capital goods, consumer durable and industrial stocks also helped the indices, traders said. Retail inflation continued its downward slide to reach a one-year low of 4.75 per cent in May due to a marginal decline of prices in the food basket and remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone of below 6 per cent, according to government data released on Wednesday.
Costlier fruits and vegetables such as onions and tomatoes pushed retail inflation to a nine-month high of 11.24 per cent in November, making it harder for the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates.
With Onam and Raksha Bandhan just around the corner, the festival season is ready to kick off in full swing. As people embrace the celebratory spirit, companies anticipate a surge in sales this year. Consumer durables firms are expecting strong growth of 40-50 per cent in the premium segment during the upcoming season. Appliance makers also foresee increased demand for cooling appliances - refrigerators and air conditioners - which were impacted by unseasonal rainfall.
October infrastructure output, which contributes nearly 38 per cent to the industrial output index, was up 3.2 per cent annually.
The rate of price rise was at 6.77 per cent in June last year.
After the hit of the pandemic, India Inc is now worried about the adverse impact of inflation and higher commodity prices on their revenues and margins. The inflation scare is the strongest among manufacturers of consumer goods such as automobiles, consumer durables, and fast-moving capital goods (FMCG). Companies across sectors fear they will not be able to pass on the hike in input costs to their consumers due to weak demand, which, in turn, would lead to a hit on margins and profitability in the forthcoming quarters.
The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates unchanged at 8.0 percent on Tuesday as widely expected, staying focused on containing inflation while adopting a more dovish tone in response to the government's call for help to revive economic growth.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das had stumped the market in the previous two policies - in August and in October - first with action and then with words. In August, it was the introduction of an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) to take out excess liquidity, which took the markets by surprise. In October, there was no action. Rather, what is known as "open mouth operation", Das' comment that the central bank might conduct open market operations (OMOs) by selling bonds tempered the euphoria in the bond markets after JP Morgan's inclusion of India in its Emerging Market Bond Index.
The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
On one hand, Operation Greens should help to smoothen volatility in the prices of vegetables, whereas the proposal to enhance and extend minimum support prices to augment farmer incomes, may emerge as an inflation risk.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
Concerned over elevated inflation, Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying more rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan may have found the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s inflation projections on the higher side, but independent experts agree with the central bank and expect both wholesale and retail prices to remain high.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
Half the stocks in the Nifty 100 index have seen a reduction in their target price by analysts this year due to fears of lacklustre earnings growth and uncertain economic environment. Adani Green Energy, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Adani Ports & SEZ and Indus Towers are among the companies that have seen the maximum cut in TPs during the first three months of calendar 2023, shows Bloomberg data. On the other hand, Canara Bank, JSW Steel and Bank of Baroda have seen the highest increase in TPs.
The government's step could push investors to choose riskier equity, or to fall back on bank deposits, thereby negatively impacting the debt market which actually needs to grow, points out T N Ninan.
It would also be the last policy of Rajan
Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Dharmendra Pradhan speaks to Sheela Bhatt/Rediff.com.
Traditionally, food prices have been seasonal in nature.
Economic affairs secretary S C Garg said that all macroeconomic parameters are performing well.
Disagreeing with Reserve Bank's projection on the price situation, former RBI Governor and PM's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said WPI and CPI may not be as high as being projected by the central bank.
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